PST-SUN S18 Team Predictions Retrospective
Waddup, I’m back after an extended vacation from content. I wanted to look back comparing my initial predictions to each team’s ultimate results (despite being somewhat meme-driven they were mostly honest), + throwing in some thoughts about player draft strategy to see if there’s any information to be gleaned. Started writing these, then decided to wait for playoffs so I didn’t have to write about 38 teams, so comments on the first few teams were written last week . Copying my initial predictions in here for context.
2ND OVERALL ITACHI TIER
PLAYOFF LOCKS
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MAPPO: ITACHI EGO > INK DISBAND RATE
Current record: 7–7 Final record: 8–8
Alright, I may have been wrong, ink’s tendency to grief the shit out of teams is too powerful for itachi to overcome. Even so, they haven’t had a terrible run — I’d say 30% chance they 2–0 and make playoffs, 70% chance they don’t and itachi blames his team again. ez prediction
The fact that they’re still in playoff contention despite only having 2 decent players (one of which left) illustrates the fact that the classic RD2L strat of picking one of the top mid players in the pool is (nearly) idiot-proof.
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SHARINGAN: EVERYONE OWNS, IGNORE ASH WORDCLOUD
Current record: 7–7 Final record: 8–8
I’ve been coaching these guys for a good bit of the season, and they’ve struggled a bit recently after a very strong start — however, they’re still very likely to make playoffs, even with a 1–1 due to their high SOS. ez prediction
I believe sharingan’s draft strategy of picking a bunch of value players is a solid one, though they struggled with roles for a good bit of the season. Milk is very good, but he’s not a mid player. Neku is a significantly better 5 than offlane. Had they started the season with Bury 1, Sharingan 2, Milk 3, and Ash/Neku supports like they’re doing now I believe they would have looked a lot stronger.
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BSVSVJ: GAFSTACK, RYRK COACHIN FREAKINCHAIR, UNSTOPPABLE
Final record: 3–11
I’ll admit, this prediction was kinda a meme, there was definitely a large question mark with how good the team would be considering half the team spends most of their time playing MMOs these days. I still would have put it fairly high just due to the fact that Anbokr is on the team. I believe one of the better strats in RD2L is picking a player you know can carry every game and building a team around that, particularly if you get to your first pick in the draft and the top couple of players left in the pool look sketchy.
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JABINSKIZ: STAYLIN + MODERATELY COMPETENT PLAYERS
Current record: 9–5 Final record: 11–5
Same general strat as the bsv’s team, and I liked the draft for a similar reason. The difference in record indicates why no one should ever play PoE.
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CLARE: LD2L OWNS, BIASED + WRONG PROBABLY
Current record: 8–6 Final record: 10–6
In general I tend to simplify player drafts down to 1 of 2 kinds — the sort with 1 good player and 1 decent player, or the sort with 3 decent players. Clare tried to go for the latter here, and while I don’t think it was entirely successful (teams like hobo have a way better tricore, for example), their decent success illustrates the value of friend drafting and synergy between players. Also the value of Greg not playing invoker.
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FATSLOTH: SLOTH + KEPLER OWN, IDC OTHERS
Current record: 7–7 Final record: 8–8
Seems like they’ve now 1–1'd 5 straight weeks, for a distinctly mediocre record of 7–7. Very high SOS though, another 1–1 should put them in playoffs. Mediocre results stem a bit from the fact that being a high MMR 1 is a bit weaker than a high MMR 2 in general. Fortunately, sloth went into the season with the intention of picking a bunch of chill people and having a good time, and he seems to be doing that. plus they made playoffs pog power of friendship
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HOBO: 3 COMPETENT PLAYERS, UNLIKE OTHER TEAMS
Current record: 12–2 Final record: 13–3
With the general weakening of the player pool, I didn’t really expect any teams to manage to get 3 decent players without picking an emotional landmine or having 5 cores. Hobo did though, and it shows with their record. They have no weak lanes, and no role issues. Best team in the div.
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MOCA: RATMAN VALUE >>>> MOCA HEROPOOL
Current record: 8–6 Final record: 9–7
With the combination of a solid lineup skill/role wise + 2 must-ban hero spammers, it‘s very unlikely these guys don’t make playoffs. I’m looking at their games and just seeing a bunch of picks that these guys should never be allowed to have. I’ve never been a huge fan of stacking a bunch of hero spammers in general, but I think everyone had to make some sacrifices in their drafts this season and it became much more viable.
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2ND PICK ITACHI TIER
PROB PLAYOFFS, SOME QUESTION MARKS
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FLYINGRETARD: FN MID POG, FN CARRY = ?????
Final record: 8–8
This is just one of the stereotypical topheavy teams. Pretty much a playoff lock, fairly certain the only reason it was a close call was because stang still insists on playing mid.
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ULTRAGUNNER: TOP 2 OWN, OTHERS EXCEPTIONALLY QUESTIONABLE
Final record: 11–5
Another topheavy team, had particularly good results due to Fiery falling way too far in the draft + the rest of the squad not being as bad as I initially thought.
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BBTM: TOP 3 DRAFT + LD2L BOMB DEPLOYED
Final record: 8–8
Mike core being somewhat hit or miss crippled the squad a bit I think, but Mike/Mags/Scrub was way too much value to not be a decent squad, assuming they didn’t murder each other midseason.
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SKATER: SKATER WILL WIN GAMES SOLO
Final record: 10–6
Good mid player autowins games, no one is surprised. Bonus points for a rigged FA, might actually make a decent playoff run.
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DOOMCOW: WHOLESOME STACK + DOOMCOW GOD BLESS
Final record: 9–7
I believe the only reason this low MMR variance squad was viable was because of the overall weakness of the division — a lot of their losses they just looked completely baffled, there’s no one playing above and beyond who can either shotcall or solo carry. Don’t try this at home, kids.
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GIVE UP DUDE: 109 = REFORMED, PLAYOFFS = SECURED
Final record: 9–7
109 gud, playoffs gud
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CRAP: CRAPDADDY + KABO + DERPY :BLOBMELT:
Final record: 10–6
These guys actually did even better than I thought. The friendship value was obvious, MMR wise it didn’t look like a disaster, but I didn’t realize the roles would work out so well, was moderately concerned Kabo would end up offlane or something.
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ITACHI DISCORD PERSONA TIER:
LOTS OF QUESTION MARKS, COULD BE GOOD THOUGH
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AEOS: HINGES ON PHANTASMAL RUST
Final record: 11–5
Aeos switching to carry accomplished 2 things — #1, their roles actually worked out, and #2 aeos finally ended up playing a role he’s good at (still not sure why the offlane experiment went on for like, 2 years). Phantasmal quickly shaking off the rust really eliminated the only other question mark with the team. I wouldn’t be surprised if these guys make it further than anyone else in playoffs, aside from hobo.
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DEADPREZ: GOOD PLAYERS BUT WHO CARRIES
Final record: 9–7
Alright, apparently the answer is DP carries. I can’t find a single game where they won where DP had less than double digit kills, most of them are like 15+. Hell, half their losses he still puts up really good numbers. This guy’s good.
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BURRA: MOST AVERAGE LOOKING TEAM EVER
Final record: 9–7
I still stand by my above statement. Their draft looks fine, their roles are fine, their final record is fine. Nothing really stands out.
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LUCKY: BIRD VALUE AT 4000, ADRIAN COOL
Final record: 11–5
One of the better player drafts, the only real question mark for me was Lucky’s hero pool, but he played well enough on misc. heroes + Riki/Pudge got let through WAY too much. A free agent that actually played 5 rounded out the squad nicely, though I’m pretty sure their time in playoffs won’t last long if Lucky’s heroes start getting hit.
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POLO: POLO + 4 SUPPORTS, DRAFT DERAILED SOMEWHERE
Final record: 10–6
Despite my above statement I left them in the ? tier because obviously NO was gonna play carry again, but one way or another their third core was gonna be predict (who plays a good support), tank (kinda yikes), or gotham (double yikes). With some role shuffling (including NO owning mid) and polo going ham all season with a 9+ KDA, everything worked out great.
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ITACHI VS. CLARE MID TIER
PEPOCHRIST
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KHILLASAURUS: REVISE RD2L CAPTAIN STANDARDS MAYBE
Final record: 8–8
Well they ALMOST made it, which was honestly a better result than I expected. Moral of the story, never give up.
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BOX: STILL BETTER THAN BOX BLOGS
Final record: 9–7
Mostly put them in this tier so I could make that joke, but still ended up being better than expected. Box mid was kinda underwhelming last season, but some combination of him improving + the pool getting worse led to him going ham all season. Had he played like this last season I would’ve put them as playoff locks just off a strong mid.
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And that’s all the playoff teams. The most accurate part of my predictions were definitely the bottom feeders — a few managed to pull out an 8–8 and almost make it, but I would chalk most of those results up to just playing against even worse teams and/or free wins from byes. I haven’t looked at other predictions, but I’m guessing most people tend to do pretty well at identifying teams that are never going to work out
This season’s lower average MMR definitely led to a lot of unusual drafts and high-variance teams, which really makes it easy to identify the standout aspects of each team. I’d roughly categorize strengths into the following categories:
- Strong mid/carry (Ultragunner, Skater, 109, Polo): More emphasis on the strong mid, but with the right mid player I believe a 1 can be just as successful. Having these kinds of players won’t make your team GOOD necessarily, but they’ll autowin enough games that you’re almost guaranteed playoffs no matter what the rest of the team looks like.
- Strong shotcaller/organizer (Ultragunner, Mike, Polo): Players that talk a lot in a non-obnoxious way that keeps the rest of the team on track without losing their minds. There are probably quite a few players that do this that I don’t know about, but the longtime vets are always a solid bet. These types of players are important for an actual GOOD team, not just one that scrapes by and makes playoffs.
- Perfect roles (Hobo’s team, Lucky’s team, Jabinski’s team): Most teams end up with at least one player left out and not performing as well as they could be. Works out ok most of the time, as it often just results in a player playing their 2nd best role, but any squad where the top 4 players are on their best roles is a good sign. Note that unlike other strengths, this will never make a mediocre team good, it can only make a solid team top-tier.
- High MMR (Ultra’s team, Hobo’s team, Lucky’s team): Through some combination of good drafting, value players, sandbagged players, and rigged free agents, teams that end up with a higher overall MMR (functional or actual) inevitably end up being strong, short of them being ruined by emotional landmines. This is also what makes the bottom tier teams so predictable — they very obviously have a low number of competent players and won’t have anyone to carry a majority of their games.
- Must-ban heroes (Lucky’s team, Moca’s team): Not necessarily a strength, but depending on how many heroes are must-ban (Moca+Ratman was unbannable), how competent the hero spammers are on other heroes (Lucky played pretty well on Kunkka, DK, etc.), and how many brain cells their opponents have, hero spammers can definitely be an asset to a team.
6. Low MMR variance (Clare’s team, Doomcow’s team): I’m not sure how much of a strength this is and how much their success came from other factors, but teams not having particularly weak links + more of the players generally being on the same page has to have some sort of benefit. I’m skeptical this is better than just having 1 player who knows what they’re doing, though.
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To roughly categorize what makes a playoffs team, I’d say most teams need to have 2–3 of those top 4 requirements, and 5/6 might not hurt either. To have a STRONG team, the top 4 are more or less required, particularly 4. This is all a bit ambiguous, but I did my best to reach out to captains to see if their thoughts on their player draft at least generally lined up with my thinking.
That’s all I got for now. Good luck to everyone in playoffs!